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5.18.06 Firms get the message, prepare for the worst Lining up backup sources of key supplies and equipment. Making sure critical employees have temporary replacements trained. Arranging for some employees to work from home and planning for extra cleaning in public lobbies. In 1918, influenza victims crowded an emergency hospital at Fort Riley, Kan. That flu, which is believed to have originated in Kansas, killed at least 20 million worldwide. Midlands businesses are considering such ideas as responses to a flu pandemic. At some companies, the planning is well under way, growing partly out of past disaster plans. Others are just beginning to think about it. Federal officials warn that those who ignore the possibility of a pandemic are taking a risk. The latest version of the federal government's pandemic plan forecasts that as many as 40 percent of workers might be off at a pandemic's peak, either sick themselves or caring for ill family members. Workers may be forced to take time off, but businesses -- and the economy -- can't. Grocery stores must keep shelves stocked. Utilities must keep lights on and water flowing. Banks must keep transactions moving. "The estimate that 40 percent of people wouldn't come to work is really hitting companies hard, and they're realizing they need to do some planning for that," said Martin Johnson, Midwest leader of Deloitte & Touche USA's business continuity management practice in Chicago. A pandemic is a global outbreak of a new virus for which few people have immunity. Federal forecasts indicate that it could roll across the country in waves and kill up to 2 million Americans. A vaccine could be months in coming. No one knows when -- or where -- a pandemic might strike, which makes planning tricky. Scientists are watching the H5N1 strain of avian flu, which first spread from birds to people in Asia in 1997. But that bug doesn't spread easily from person to person, a change it must make to go pandemic. Experts say infected migratory birds aren't expected to reach the United States until this fall, and at least one expects it to take longer. Surveillance efforts are expected to give the nation a way to see the threat coming. Overall, companies have made progress on plans over the past six months, said Johnson, who has worked with Deloitte's Omaha office on a couple of projects. But they're probably not where they should be, he said. Businesses and other organizations should be discussing the possibility of a flu pandemic and communicating with employees, said Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy, Nebraska's homeland security chief. He's been meeting with a group of Omaha and Lincoln business executives since last year. "If they are totally ignoring the threat, then I would say they're behind," he said. Officials aren't trying to scare people, Sheehy said. But many businesses -- individuals, too -- have gotten into a "just-in-time" mode of stocking shelves that has left them less prepared than they were during the Cold War. Many key industries -- hospitals, utilities, retail grocers and transportation companies -- already have plans to cover disasters, industry officials say. In many cases, pandemic plans are growing out of those plans. Kathy Siefken, executive director of the Nebraska Grocery Industry Association, said grocery stores and their suppliers have plans for all sorts of disasters and probably aren't preparing for a pandemic any more than for any other specific event. Consumers, she said, should avoid panicking but stock up -- a few cans at a time -- on staples, remembering to use older goods first. The Omaha Public Power District is considering whether more employees could work from home and how best to secure its supply chains, said Jeff Hanson, a spokesman. OPPD expects to roll out by midsummer a draft pandemic plan as part of its overall business preparedness plan, Hanson said. That plan started with the utility's preparations for Y2K, the computer turnover at the start of the year 2000. Click to see how seasonal flu differs from pandemic flu. The Metropolitan Utilities District has started reviewing the national pandemic plan to see what additional pieces it might add, said Tom Wurtz, the utility's president. The company has always cross-trained employees to provide backups in case of disasters. But it is thinking about bringing in outside personnel if too many meter readers or chemists, for example, were out sick. Some companies also are asking employees to be prepared: to stock up on food and medications at home as the federal government advises, to know flu signs and symptoms and who can watch their children if necessary and to stay home if they get sick. "If you don't feel healthy or you're not healthy, you're better off to stay home," said Mark Davis, a spokesman for the Union Pacific Railroad, which began pandemic planning at the end of 2005. If people do get sick, someone will have to care for them. The majority of hospitals in Nebraska and nationwide have had high-level discussions about communications and staffing as well as their ability to absorb an influx of patients, said Peggy Luebbert, system consultant for infection control for Alegent Health. Now they're getting down to details. A statewide task force of infection control specialists recently released a 60-page draft checklist that Nebraska hospitals can use to plan, said Luebbert, who headed the task force. One goal was to standardize preparedness, she said. If hospitals have similar plans, staff from one hospital could help at another without learning new procedures. Hospitals learned from Hurricane Katrina that they need to plan for the worst-case scenario, she said. They have plans to house staff during a snowstorm. But they don't have plans to house them through a pandemic. Figuring out how many supplies to stock and how to adjust standards of care are other challenges, she said. Protocol calls for changing IV tubing every three days to prevent infection. If tubing is short, should a hospital change that practice? Hospitals also are confronting the potential need to provide quarantine space for patients and to train relatives to help care for the sick at home or in the hospital. Luebbert said she won't consider the effort wasted if the avian flu strain fizzles. "Sooner or later, there's going to be a bug that doesn't, and we need to be prepared."
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